Brandon Currin
Your Guide to SHTF Scenarios: When to Bug Out and When to Bug In
Most people don’t have a bug out plan and don’t know what to do in a survival situation. But you’re a BattlBoxer, so you’re different. You have a plan, you have plenty of resources at your fingertips to ensure you’re ready for anything, and you’re confident in your ability to survive. But how do you know when you’re in a SHTF situation? How do you know when to bug out and when to bug in?
We’re here to answer those questions for you.
How do you know if S has actually HTF?
Here are 6 possible SHTF scenarios to look out for:
- Resource depletion.
- Natural disaster.
- Terrorist threat or attack.
- Transportation failure.
- Riots.
- Panic (people tend to do crazy things if there’s panic over the possibility of any of the above, which could put you in danger)
When it’s time to bug out:
- A natural disaster is imminent. This could be a flood, wildfire, hurricane, chemical spill, or more. If there’s a potential for your area to be unsafe, it’s time to consider your options.
- If staying inside your home could be more dangerous than evacuating. If your home is right in the middle of the spot where shit is supposed to hit the worst, it’s probably time to get out of there. And if you have a bunker or a spot that’s much safer, head there. Otherwise, just get away with a general area in mind.
- Your transportation system is affected. Think about what could happen if your transportation system is shut down. Store shelves will be empty in a matter of days. People around you will be left without food and water, and unless you have enough stashed (and protected away from desperate neighbors) to last you a few weeks, then it’s time to bug out.
- Your stockpile is almost gone. Sure, you’ve planned and prepped for this, but what if the disaster or threat lasts longer than what you’ve planned for? When shit hits the fan, take a real, honest look at your stockpile and decide in the beginning whether you’ll have enough to survive until things lighten up again, or until it’s time to move on to plan B. Just remember you’ll also need food, water, and other resources while you’re on the move, so plan accordingly.
Keep in mind that if you choose to bug out, you won’t be the only one getting out of town. Your highways will be flooded with tons of panicking civilians, so always have several different routes in your bug out plan. Don't forget the 5 things that should never be in your bug out bag.
When it’s time to bug in:
- If getting outside could be more dangerous than staying put. Remember: if shit has hit the fan, the people around you are likely panicking, and if they’re not level-headed and prepared like you, they’ll do whatever they can to survive. Sometimes staying locked inside gives you your best chance of survival.
- You don’t have a safe destination. If your plan is to bug out to the woods or a forest, know that you’re probably not alone in the wake of a widespread emergency. Even having just a few hunters in the same area can mean competing for natural resources, and a tougher chance of survival.
- If it’ll be too suspicious. Being on the road during emergencies can make you an easier target. You likely don’t know what you’re walking or driving into, which can make it tougher for you to react if the situation escalates. Plus, if you walk into an unfamiliar town with your bug out bags, knives, and AR-15 slung over your bulletproof vest, you’re likely going to attract a lot of attention. If these things could put you at a higher risk, bug in.
Ultimately, the choice is yours. If you bug out too soon, you might find that the emergency wasn’t as bad as you first thought, meaning wasting time and valuable resources. But bugging out too late or choosing to bug in instead could put you in a whole different situation. Be prepared for both bugging out and bugging in, and know which one to choose.
